Fitch Maintains Indonesia’s BBB Credit Rating with Stable Outlook

JAKARTA, investortrust.id – Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Indonesia’s sovereign credit rating at BBB with a stable outlook as of March 11, 2025, keeping it one notch above the lowest investment grade level.

"Fitch's decision reflects Indonesia’s solid medium-term economic growth prospects and low government debt-to-GDP ratio," said Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo in a statement from Jakarta.

Despite a global trend of capital outflows from emerging markets, foreign funds continue to flow into Indonesia’s sovereign debt market. According to data from the Ministry of Finance’s Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management (DJPPR), foreign investors recorded a net purchase of Rp 1.08 trillion ($68 million) in rupiah-denominated government bonds on Monday.

So far, foreign investors have made a net purchase of Rp 8.92 trillion ($560 million) month-to-date and Rp 22.43 trillion ($1.4 billion) year-to-date.

Strong Domestic Demand Drives Growth

In its report, Fitch projected Indonesia’s economic growth in 2025 to be primarily driven by robust domestic demand. This includes sustained public spending on social assistance and infrastructure projects.

Private investment is expected to remain strong, supported by: moderate monetary easing policies, reduced policy uncertainty post-2024 elections, continued downstream processing of natural resources.

Fitch also noted that structural improvements, stronger government revenue, and enhanced external resilience could provide an opportunity for Indonesia’s sovereign credit rating to be upgraded in the future.

Bank Indonesia’s Role in Economic Stability

Commenting on the rating affirmation, Governor Perry Warjiyo emphasized that the stable outlook reflects global confidence in Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability and medium-term economic prospects.

"This is supported by strong policy credibility and synergy between the government and Bank Indonesia, despite ongoing global uncertainties," he stated.

Bank Indonesia remains committed to ensuring inflation remains within the 2.5% ±1% target for 2025 and 2026, while also supporting economic growth. The central bank will continue to strengthen coordination with the government to manage inflation, particularly for volatile food prices and monitor global and domestic financial developments, Perry said. 

Bank Indonesia will also strive to maintain financial system stability through close collaboration with the Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) and support economic expansion in line with the government’s Asta Cita program, he said.