Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Rises to $3.45 Billion in January, Marking 57 Consecutive Months of Surplus

JAKARTA, investortrust.id – Indonesia posted a trade surplus of $3.45 billion in January 2025, marking 57 consecutive months of surplus. The surplus grew 4.68% year-on-year, driven by strong non-oil and gas exports, which contributed $4.88 billion, while the oil and gas sector recorded a $1.43 billion deficit.

"This trade surplus increased compared to both the previous month and the same period last year," said Acting Head of Statistics Indonesia (BPS) Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti at a press conference in Jakarta on Monday, Feb. 17.

Exports and Imports Decline in January

According to BPS data, Indonesia’s exports in January 2025 totaled $21.45 billion, a month-on-month decline of 8.56% from December 2024. Meanwhile, imports also fell by 15.18% to $18 billion.

Amalia explained that Indonesia’s two key export components, oil and gas (migas) and non-oil and gas, experienced a monthly decline. Oil and gas exports fell sharply by 31.35% in January 2025 to $1.06 billion.
Non-oil and gas exports declined 6.69% month-on-month to $20.4 billion. 

The decline in non-oil and gas exports was primarily driven by weaker shipments of coal, palm oil, and metal ores, slag, and ash. Meanwhile, the drop in oil and gas exports was attributed to a sharp decline in gas exports, which contributed a 1.08% month-on-month drop.

However, on an annual basis, Indonesia’s total exports rose 4.68% in January, supported by higher shipments of ships, boats, and floating structures; precious metals and jewelry; and inorganic chemical exports.

BPS also reported a sharp decline in imports in January 2025, falling 15.18% month-on-month to $18 billion. Oil and gas imports decreased 24.69% to $2.48 billion. Non-oil and gas imports dropped 13.43% to $15.52 billion.

"The decline in non-oil and gas imports accounted for an 11.34% contraction, while oil and gas imports contributed a 3.84% drop," Amalia noted.

On a year-on-year basis, total imports declined 2.67%, with oil and gas imports falling 7.99%, while non-oil and gas imports declined 1.76%.

Rupiah Strengthens Amid Trade Surplus

Ahead of the January trade balance release, the rupiah strengthened against the US dollar on Monday, Feb. 17. According to Yahoo Finance, the rupiah appreciated by 55 points (0.34%), reaching Rp 16,199 per US dollar.

Economists had expected exports to grow 9.5% year-on-year but to contract 4.4% month-on-month, citing lower commodity prices for key Indonesian exports such as coal, nickel, and crude palm oil (CPO). However, the average CPO price increased by 20.4% year-on-year, while coal export volumes remained strong, supporting Indonesia’s overall trade performance.

Global Factors and Market Outlook

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate that Indonesia’s trade surplus may narrow in the coming months due to a faster rise in imports compared to exports.

From a global perspective, recent developments in the United States could impact trade flows. US President Donald Trump has signed a directive instructing the US Trade Representative and Secretary of Commerce to propose new country-specific tariffs. Additionally, US Treasury bond yields have declined below 4.5%, signaling expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year in response to slowing economic conditions.

“This week, market participants will closely monitor Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and statements from Federal Reserve officials for insights into the US central bank’s policy outlook,” said Andry Asmoro, Chief Economist at PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk, in Jakarta on Monday.

With Indonesia’s trade surplus still in positive territory and the rupiah showing resilience, economic observers remain cautiously optimistic about the country’s trade performance amid fluctuating global conditions.