Merdeka Battery Materials Is Poised to Dominate the Global Nickel Supply Chain

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk (MBMA), one of Southeast Asia's leading integrated electric vehicle battery materials producers, is entering a lucrative "harvest phase" following a multi-year, $3 billion infrastructure spending blitz.

Brokerage house Sucor Sekuritas raised its target price on the stock to Rp 1,000 ($0.063) per share from Rp 680 ($0.043) on Thursday, reiterating its "BUY" call. The upward revision reflects the robust valuation of MBMA's flagship nickel mining concession and its Rotary Kiln-Electric Furnace (RKEF) processing plants, which together represent roughly 75% of the company's enterprise value.

MBMA is rapidly transforming from a high-capex developer into Indonesia's largest publicly traded nickel miner just as global battery supply chains hunt for cost-competitive raw materials. With market prices hovering near cyclical troughs, any rebound in global demand offers significant earnings upside for low-cost, vertically integrated processors.

A $3 Billion Bet Starts Paying Off

The company's heavy investments across nickel ore extraction, nickel pig iron (NPI), matte conversion, and High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) are finally reaching critical mass.

"With infrastructure fully built and operational, ramping production to maximum capacity will deliver a steep ascent across revenue, net income, and free cash flow," Sucor Sekuritas analyst Andreas Yordan Tarigan stated in a research note published Thursday.

Tarigan forecasts MBMA’s top line to skyrocket to $3.3 billion by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 51% from 2025. Over the same period, bottom-line net profit is projected to hit $306 million, reflecting a massive 322% CAGR.

Unlocking Massive Free Cash Flow

MBMA’s operational scale is set to lead the domestic industry, with nickel ore output projected to hit 66.1 million tons (60 million metric tons) by 2028. Analysts estimate that producing just 38.6 million tons (35 million metric tons) generates over $500 million in normalized annual free cash flow.

Once MBMA’s Acid, Iron, Metal (AIM) processing plant reaches peak utilization alongside its upstream assets, annual free cash flow could exceed $1 billion by 2028.

These projections do not yet account for future upside from the subsidiary SLNC processing facility currently under construction, giving long-term investors substantial exposure to further high-yielding downstream projects despite risks stemming from potential commodity price softness or execution delays.